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Temporary Life Changes and the Timing of Divorce - a Bayesian Approach

How does modern sociology predict large events in people's lives, such as divorce. It turns out that bayesian statistics have a lot to offer. Come join the conversation and learn more about the approaches as they exist in the field of analytical sociology.

Info about event

Time

Tuesday 3 February 2015,  at 11:00 - 12:30

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Location

Aarhus University, Nobelparken, building 1483, 3rd floor, IMC meeting room

Organizer

Interacting Minds Centre
Peter Fallesen

A short introduction to Analytical Sociology and presentation of the paper: ”Temporary Life Changes and the Timing of Divorce.”

The first part of the presentation outlines key concepts and the central players within the field of analytical sociology (AS). AS is a temporary theoretical and methodological strategy that aims at explaining macro phenomenon by way of precise descriptions of the micro-level social mechanisms that brings the phenomenon about. AS extends Max Weber’s methodological individualism, the Chicago school’s theories of social action, and Thomas Schelling and Raymond Boudon’s work on simulations as a form of explanation. Instead of being a theory as such, AS is a strategy (or syntax) for developing precise and testable middle-range social theories that originates from individual actions. AS also places large weight on the use of formalization through a desire-belief-opportunity framework and use agent based models to generate and test propositions derived for proposed theories.

The second part of the talk presents ongoing work partly within the framework of AS under the title “Temporary Life Changes and the Timing of Divorce”. Relationships are risky undertakings that people enter with incomplete information about their partner and their future life circumstances. A large literature has shown both theoretically and empirically how new information gained from unforeseen persistent changes in life circumstances may trigger a divorce. In this paper, we extend this literature by considering how information gained from a temporary change in life circumstances – in our case, having a child with infantile colic – may affect divorce behavior. We show that the increased negotiation needs created by the temporary stressful situation allow couples to faster discern the matching quality of their relationship, thereby also reaching a potential divorce decisions at a faster rate. Where persistent life changes may induce divorces, temporary life changes such as infantile colic instead shorten the time to divorce or disruption among couples who would have split up anyway. (This is joint work with Richard Breen, Yale University)

Peter Fallesen, Sociologist, Researcher at the Rockwool Foundation