Abstract

Assessing non-pharmaceutical interventions' (NPIs) effectiveness to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is critical to inform future preparedness response plans. We propose a modeling approach that combines four computational techniques merging statistical, inference, and artificial intelligence tools to evaluate the impact of NPIs on spreading the Covid19 pandemic. Our results indicate that a suitable combination of NPIs is necessary to curb the spread of the virus. Less disruptive and costly NPIs can be as effective as more intrusive, drastic ones (for example, a national lockdown). Using country-specific "what-if" scenarios, we assess how the effectiveness of NPIs depends on the local context, such as the timing of their adoption, opening the way for forecasting the effectiveness of future interventions.

About the speaker

Allesandro Londei, PhD
SONY Computer Science Lab